← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 4/30/2026
Water FractalTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 4/30/2026
decks
3
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-7-0
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1143
· range 1090–1400
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1179
Q3 1388
1535
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fractal | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
